The 57% Illusion: Why Polymarket's IRGC Probability Is a Crypto Risk You Shouldn't Hedge
Hook: A single data point flashed across Polymarket this week: a 57%...
Blockchain
•
CryptoRay
•
2026-07-20
#POL
POL related articles
Market Prices
BTC
Bitcoin
$75,549.1
-3.91%
ETH
Ethereum
$2,396.48
-5.71%
SOL
Solana
$96.82
-6.15%
BNB
BNB Chain
$712.4
-1.56%
XRP
XRP Ledger
$1.28
-11.15%
DOGE
Dogecoin
$0.0799
-5.08%
ADA
Cardano
$0.1948
-7.24%
AVAX
Avalanche
$7.25
-5.08%
DOT
Polkadot
$0.9451
-6.35%
LINK
Chainlink
$10.88
-6.22%
Fear & Greed
69
Greed
Market Sentiment
7x24h Flash News
More >
{{快讯列表(10)}}
{{loop}}
{{/loop}}
{{/快讯列表}}
{{快讯时间}}
{{快讯内容}}
{{快讯标签}}
Event Calendar
202610
05
upgrade
Ethereum Pectra Upgrade
Raises validator limit and account abstraction
15
04
halving
Bitcoin Halving
Block reward reduced to 3.125 BTC
28
03
unlock
Arbitrum Token Unlock
92 million ARB released
22
03
unlock
Optimism Unlock
Circulating supply increases by about 2%
18
03
unlock
Sui Token Unlock
Team and early investor shares released
12
05
halving
BCH Halving
Block reward halving event
30
04
upgrade
Celestia Mainnet Upgrade
Improves data availability sampling efficiency
08
04
upgrade
Solana Firedancer
Independent validator client goes live on mainnet
Topic Tags
Tools
All →Altseason Index
42
Bitcoin Season
BTC Dominance
Altseason
Gas Tracker
Ethereum
28 Gwei
BNB Chain
3 Gwei
Polygon
42 Gwei
Arbitrum
0.5 Gwei
Optimism
0.3 Gwei
Market Cap
All →
1
Bitcoin
BTC
$75,549.1
1
Ethereum
ETH
$2,396.48
1
Solana
SOL
$96.82
1
BNB Chain
BNB
$712.4
1
XRP Ledger
XRP
$1.28
1
Dogecoin
DOGE
$0.0799
1
Cardano
ADA
$0.1948
1
Avalanche
AVAX
$7.25
1
Polkadot
DOT
$0.9451
1
Chainlink
LINK
$10.88
🐋 Whale Tracker
🔴
0xf8cf...0d9a
12m ago
Out
4,293,208 DOGE
🔴
0xc26f...6a1c
1h ago
Out
1,805.23 BTC
🔴
0xfadb...277a
5m ago
Out
39,026 BNB
💡 Smart Money
0x6cc7...e4ec
Market Maker
+$1.4M
67%
0x4101...e8fc
Early Investor
+$1.5M
82%
0x42df...c6d6
Early Investor
+$0.2M
90%