The 57% Illusion: Why Polymarket's IRGC Probability Is a Crypto Risk You Shouldn't Hedge
Hook: A single data point flashed across Polymarket this week: a 57%...
Blockchain
•
CryptoRay
•
2026-07-20
#pol
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Fear & Greed
26
Fear
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Event Calendar
202610
05
upgrade
Ethereum Pectra Upgrade
Raises validator limit and account abstraction
12
05
halving
BCH Halving
Block reward halving event
08
04
upgrade
Solana Firedancer
Independent validator client goes live on mainnet
15
04
halving
Bitcoin Halving
Block reward reduced to 3.125 BTC
18
03
unlock
Sui Token Unlock
Team and early investor shares released
28
03
unlock
Arbitrum Token Unlock
92 million ARB released
22
03
unlock
Optimism Unlock
Circulating supply increases by about 2%
30
04
upgrade
Celestia Mainnet Upgrade
Improves data availability sampling efficiency
Topic Tags
Tools
All →Altseason Index
40
Bitcoin Season
BTC Dominance
Altseason
Gas Tracker
Ethereum
28 Gwei
BNB Chain
3 Gwei
Polygon
42 Gwei
Arbitrum
0.5 Gwei
Optimism
0.3 Gwei
Market Cap
All →
1
Bitcoin
BTC
$77,074.4
1
Ethereum
ETH
$2,265.16
1
Solana
SOL
$92.43
1
BNB Chain
BNB
$697.32
1
XRP Ledger
XRP
$1.26
1
Dogecoin
DOGE
$0.0745
1
Cardano
ADA
$0.1892
1
Avalanche
AVAX
$8.52
1
Polkadot
DOT
$0.9434
1
Chainlink
LINK
$11.13
🐋 Whale Tracker
🔴
0xbd02...3bae
2m ago
Out
30,095 BNB
🔵
0xb117...a608
30m ago
Stake
18,001 SOL
🔵
0x1362...8c93
6h ago
Stake
516 ETH
💡 Smart Money
0xa50d...0ef7
Institutional Custody
+$1.5M
75%
0xbb4e...4e59
Market Maker
+$4.0M
63%
0x849b...547e
Early Investor
+$1.4M
68%