The 57% Illusion: Why Polymarket's IRGC Probability Is a Crypto Risk You Shouldn't Hedge
Hook: A single data point flashed across Polymarket this week: a 57%...
Blockchain
•
CryptoRay
•
2026-07-20
#poly
poly related articles
Market Prices
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Fear & Greed
26
Fear
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Event Calendar
202608
04
upgrade
Solana Firedancer
Independent validator client goes live on mainnet
28
03
unlock
Arbitrum Token Unlock
92 million ARB released
22
03
unlock
Optimism Unlock
Circulating supply increases by about 2%
12
05
halving
BCH Halving
Block reward halving event
30
04
upgrade
Celestia Mainnet Upgrade
Improves data availability sampling efficiency
15
04
halving
Bitcoin Halving
Block reward reduced to 3.125 BTC
10
05
upgrade
Ethereum Pectra Upgrade
Raises validator limit and account abstraction
18
03
unlock
Sui Token Unlock
Team and early investor shares released
Topic Tags
Tools
All →Altseason Index
40
Bitcoin Season
BTC Dominance
Altseason
Gas Tracker
Ethereum
28 Gwei
BNB Chain
3 Gwei
Polygon
42 Gwei
Arbitrum
0.5 Gwei
Optimism
0.3 Gwei
Market Cap
All →
1
Bitcoin
BTC
$76,584
1
Ethereum
ETH
$2,252.63
1
Solana
SOL
$91.71
1
BNB Chain
BNB
$692.62
1
XRP Ledger
XRP
$1.25
1
Dogecoin
DOGE
$0.0737
1
Cardano
ADA
$0.1859
1
Avalanche
AVAX
$8.34
1
Polkadot
DOT
$0.9287
1
Chainlink
LINK
$11.07
🐋 Whale Tracker
🟢
0xc882...4827
12m ago
In
1,960 SOL
🟢
0xa332...2b4e
12m ago
In
450,051 USDT
🔴
0x9604...e1d6
2m ago
Out
2,154.05 BTC
💡 Smart Money
0x3c39...de15
Arbitrage Bot
+$1.7M
66%
0xc3d1...0ef4
Early Investor
+$0.6M
91%
0xc087...e5b5
Institutional Custody
+$1.9M
67%