The 57% Illusion: Why Polymarket's IRGC Probability Is a Crypto Risk You Shouldn't Hedge
Hook: A single data point flashed across Polymarket this week: a 57%...
Blockchain
•
CryptoRay
•
2026-07-20
#probability
probability related articles
Market Prices
BTC
Bitcoin
$75,637.7
-3.38%
ETH
Ethereum
$2,400.43
-4.69%
SOL
Solana
$97.1
-5.43%
BNB
BNB Chain
$712.6
-1.17%
XRP
XRP Ledger
$1.29
-9.51%
DOGE
Dogecoin
$0.0802
-4.18%
ADA
Cardano
$0.1959
-6.18%
AVAX
Avalanche
$7.28
-3.86%
DOT
Polkadot
$0.9470
-6.05%
LINK
Chainlink
$10.9
-5.36%
Fear & Greed
69
Greed
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Event Calendar
202618
03
unlock
Sui Token Unlock
Team and early investor shares released
15
04
halving
Bitcoin Halving
Block reward reduced to 3.125 BTC
22
03
unlock
Optimism Unlock
Circulating supply increases by about 2%
10
05
upgrade
Ethereum Pectra Upgrade
Raises validator limit and account abstraction
08
04
upgrade
Solana Firedancer
Independent validator client goes live on mainnet
28
03
unlock
Arbitrum Token Unlock
92 million ARB released
30
04
upgrade
Celestia Mainnet Upgrade
Improves data availability sampling efficiency
12
05
halving
BCH Halving
Block reward halving event
Topic Tags
Tools
All →Altseason Index
42
Bitcoin Season
BTC Dominance
Altseason
Gas Tracker
Ethereum
28 Gwei
BNB Chain
3 Gwei
Polygon
42 Gwei
Arbitrum
0.5 Gwei
Optimism
0.3 Gwei
Market Cap
All →
1
Bitcoin
BTC
$75,637.7
1
Ethereum
ETH
$2,400.43
1
Solana
SOL
$97.1
1
BNB Chain
BNB
$712.6
1
XRP Ledger
XRP
$1.29
1
Dogecoin
DOGE
$0.0802
1
Cardano
ADA
$0.1959
1
Avalanche
AVAX
$7.28
1
Polkadot
DOT
$0.9470
1
Chainlink
LINK
$10.9
🐋 Whale Tracker
🔴
0x9a23...3273
12m ago
Out
9,956,116 DOGE
🔵
0x8077...da31
3h ago
Stake
3,000,962 USDT
🔴
0xdef8...8327
30m ago
Out
1,580,645 USDT
💡 Smart Money
0xd771...0b44
Top DeFi Miner
+$2.0M
77%
0x0ab6...03f4
Early Investor
+$1.0M
71%
0x16bc...b115
Experienced On-chain Trader
+$0.8M
63%